How Pep Guardiola Adapts His Pressing Scheme When Key Players Are Missing

Manchester City's pressing structure has changed significantly during Pep Guardiola's injury-disrupted 2025-26 campaign. The side currently sits fourth in the Premier League, seven points behind leaders Liverpool, after playing 13 matches without at least one of Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne or Ruben Dias. Guardiola has restructured the press in ways that sacrifice intensity for positional discipline.

According to Opta data cited by The Athletic, City's PPDA — passes allowed per defensive action, a measure of pressing intensity — rose from 8.4 last season to 11.2 this season, moving the team from second to ninth in the league. The shift reflects Guardiola's reluctance to expose a thinner squad to high-risk counter-attacks.

The Role Rodri Played

Rodri's season-ending ACL injury in September removed the single most important pressing anchor in the team. The Spanish midfielder averaged 11.3 defensive actions per 90 minutes in 2024-25, the highest rate among Premier League defensive midfielders, per FBref. His absence forced Guardiola to rebalance the pressing triggers.

Mateo Kovacic, his primary replacement, is more ball-carrier than screen. The Croatian averages just 7.1 defensive actions per 90, and City's opponents have completed 87 percent of passes through the central midfield zone this season, compared with 78 percent in 2024-25.

The Shift From Man-Oriented to Zonal Pressing

Under Rodri, City's press was heavily man-oriented. Forwards shadowed opposition center-backs, wide midfielders jumped to fullbacks, and Rodri mirrored the opposition No. 10. Without that anchor, Guardiola has transitioned to a zonal shell triggered only by specific cues — backward passes from center-backs and poor first touches.

"We cannot press like last year because the distances are too big," Guardiola told reporters after City's November draw at Brighton. "The risk is too much. We press when the ball goes backward, when they lose control. Otherwise we defend in the block."

New Roles for Existing Players

Erling Haaland, who scored 27 Premier League goals last season, has seen his pressing output drop by 23 percent. His average pressures per 90 minutes fell from 18.3 to 14.1. Guardiola has instead asked Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden to lead the press from deeper positions, which limits City's forward threat but preserves defensive shape.

Midfielder Nico Gonzalez, signed from Porto for €60 million in January 2025, has absorbed some of Rodri's defensive minutes. The 23-year-old Spaniard has averaged 9.8 defensive actions per 90 since December, a figure that has climbed steadily as Guardiola has demanded more aggressive positioning from him.

The Results So Far

City's goals conceded per game has risen to 1.24 from 0.89 last season. However, the side has given up only three goals from direct counter-attacks in 2025-26, the second-lowest total in the Premier League. The conservative press has reduced turnover-to-goal vulnerability at the cost of regain frequency.

Expected goals conceded has risen from 0.94 to 1.31 per game, a figure more representative of the team's defensive quality than the raw goals-against column. Opponents have generated 14.1 shots per match against City, up from 10.6 last season.

Tactical Outlook for the Run-In

Rodri is expected to return in late March, with Guardiola telling reporters the club plans to "reintegrate him slowly" through 20- and 30-minute substitute appearances. Dias is fully fit, and De Bruyne's hamstring issue is expected to keep him out until early April.

City's chances of retaining the Premier League title are rated at 8 percent by Opta's supercomputer, with Liverpool the overwhelming favorite at 71 percent. The Champions League projection is more favorable: City enter the round of 16 against Atletico Madrid with a 19 percent chance of winning the competition, according to the same model.