NHL Playoffs 2026: Why the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche Face Off in the West

The NHL's 2026 playoffs begin April 19, with the Western Conference first-round matchups featuring a revenge series: the Edmonton Oilers vs. the Colorado Avalanche. Connor McDavid's Oilers and Nathan MacKinnon's Avalanche have been the NHL's two statistically dominant teams during the 2025-26 regular season, with Edmonton holding the top seed after an 111-point regular season and Colorado as the West's second seed with 105 points.

The matchup has been the most-anticipated first-round series in the Western Conference since the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals. Both teams are considered cup contenders, and both feature three players in the top 20 of the NHL's season-long scoring leaders: McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard for Edmonton; MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen for Colorado.

Connor McDavid's MVP Campaign

Connor McDavid has produced his most consistent full-season performance, finishing the regular season with 121 points (37 goals, 84 assists) in 79 games. His points-per-game rate of 1.53 is his third-highest career mark and places him first on the regular-season scoring list. McDavid's faceoff percentage, historically a weakness, has improved to 52.1 percent from 48.6 percent last season.

McDavid has been widely expected to win his fourth Hart Trophy (NHL MVP) since winning in 2017, 2021 and 2023. His expected goals percentage of 59.4 — a team-relative metric measuring shot quality — leads the NHL among forwards with 800-plus minutes. The Oilers' overall possession metrics are up 8 percentage points when he is on the ice versus off.

Nathan MacKinnon's MVP Competition

Nathan MacKinnon, the 2024 Hart Trophy winner, has produced 108 points (33 goals, 75 assists) in 78 games. His season includes a 17-game point streak in January and February, the longest in the NHL since 2018. MacKinnon's effective plus-minus of +24 leads the NHL, and his impact on Colorado's possession metrics — a +11 percentage-point Corsi differential — is the strongest among active players.

MacKinnon's speed remains his most distinctive asset. His average skating speed of 24.3 mph leads forwards, and his top recorded speed of 26.2 mph is the NHL's fastest for the 2025-26 season. Colorado head coach Jared Bednar told reporters in March that MacKinnon "gets better as the games get more physical."

Tactical Matchups

The series will feature contrasting tactical approaches. Edmonton under head coach Kris Knoblauch has emphasized possession-based offense with a five-man lift system — requiring all five skaters to support puck movement through the neutral zone. The Oilers average 37 percent of offensive-zone starts, the highest rate in the NHL.

Colorado under head coach Jared Bednar has taken a more transition-focused approach. The Avalanche generate 19 percent of their goals from direct off-the-rush plays, the highest percentage in the NHL. The team's blueliner pairs — Cale Makar with Devon Toews, and Samuel Girard with Josh Manson — are designed to push the puck forward aggressively after defensive zone retrievals.

Goaltending

Goaltending is the series's most significant variable. Edmonton's Calvin Pickard, who became the starter in November after Stuart Skinner's early-season struggles, has a .919 save percentage through the regular season. Pickard is making his first NHL playoff appearance in his fifth NHL season.

Colorado's Alexandar Georgiev, the team's starter since 2022, has a .905 save percentage — below the league's average of .909 — and has been the subject of trade speculation. Backup Adam Forsberg posted a .917 save percentage in limited appearances. Bednar has not publicly committed to a starter for the playoff opener, a statement interpreted as concern about Georgiev.

Special Teams

Edmonton's power play, led by McDavid and Draisaitl, has operated at a 27.8 percent success rate — the highest in the NHL. Colorado's power play has ranked 15th at 21.4 percent but features the league's most dangerous point-shot combination in Makar and Devon Toews.

Colorado's penalty kill has been stronger at 84.2 percent, versus Edmonton's 81.1 percent. The statistical gap suggests the Avalanche may have an advantage in low-scoring playoff games, though the Oilers' power-play dominance could offset that edge if Colorado struggles to avoid penalties.

The Experience Factor

Edmonton's core of McDavid, Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has appeared in 62 combined playoff games. The team has reached the Western Conference Finals twice in the McDavid era (2022 and 2024) but has not won a Stanley Cup. Draisaitl's contract situation — he is a pending unrestricted free agent in July 2026 — has added urgency to the team's current championship window.

Colorado's 2022 Stanley Cup victory under Bednar remains the team's most recent championship. MacKinnon, Makar and Rantanen all have cup experience. The team's core has 84 combined playoff games, more than Edmonton's core. MacKinnon's contract runs through 2031, providing long-term stability.

Predictions and Odds

Betting markets have installed Edmonton as the slight favorite to win the series, with -145 odds versus Colorado's +125. The series price reflects the Oilers' home-ice advantage and McDavid's recent form. FanDuel also projects the series to go seven games (+220), reflecting the perceived close matchup.

The NHL's simulation models produce similar projections. The league's internal analytics, shared with teams ahead of the playoffs, give Edmonton a 54 percent probability of advancing and Colorado 46 percent. The predictions account for home ice, recent form and head-to-head results.

Stanley Cup Implications

The winner of the Edmonton-Colorado series would become the Western Conference favorite to reach the Stanley Cup Finals. The projected second-round matchups — likely against the Dallas Stars or Winnipeg Jets — are considered more favorable than the Edmonton-Colorado first-round series.

The Eastern Conference's leading contenders are the Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers, and Boston Bruins. The 2025 Stanley Cup champion, the Florida Panthers, enter the 2026 playoffs as the East's third seed and are expected to reach the Conference Finals. A Stanley Cup Finals featuring either Edmonton or Colorado against Toronto or Florida would match the NHL's most-recognized current stars.