Fourth-Down Decision-Making in the NFL: The Analytics Revolution Is Now Complete

NFL head coaches in 2025 agreed with analytical fourth-down recommendations 88 percent of the time, up from 62 percent in 2019, according to ESPN's Decision Score metric. The shift represents the near-total integration of EdjSports-style decision models into in-game coaching, a process that began with the Eagles' 2017 Super Bowl and has accelerated through the 2020s.

The league's average fourth-down conversion rate remained roughly stable at 55.8 percent during this period, suggesting the increased attempts have not diluted success rates. Teams have simply identified more favorable situations to go for it, rather than forcing attempts from high-risk fields.

The Decision Score Metric

ESPN's Decision Score, launched in 2022, compares each fourth-down decision against the analytically optimal choice — whether to go for it, punt, or attempt a field goal. The score uses a team-strength-adjusted model that factors in win probability before and after the decision, with adjustments for game situation.

Philadelphia Eagles coach Nick Sirianni, whose 2024 championship team led the NFL in aggressive fourth-down calls, received a Decision Score of 96 — the highest recorded since the metric's launch. Current Tennessee Titans coach Mike Vrabel ranked 31st among 32 teams in the same year and was replaced after the season.

The EdjSports Model

EdjSports, the Philadelphia-based consultancy founded in 2010 by Eric Cohen and Adam Wasch, now serves 17 of the 32 NFL teams as a full-time fourth-down decision consultant. The firm's model incorporates expected points, historical conversion rates at specific yardages, opposing defense efficiency, and weather-adjusted kicking probabilities.

EdjSports president Tim Hohn told Sports Illustrated in January that the company's recommendations are "wrong about 20 percent of the time by design, because we're playing probabilities." The firm's data show that teams following its recommendations over a full season have gained an average of 2.1 wins compared with teams ignoring them.

The Baltimore Ravens as Case Study

The Baltimore Ravens under coach John Harbaugh have been the most aggressive NFL team on fourth downs since 2019. The Ravens attempted 49 fourth-down conversions in the 2024 season, converting 66 percent — both figures top-five in the league. Harbaugh's aggression has evolved from anecdotal to fully analytical, with Ravens special-teams coordinator Randy Brown working directly with EdjSports.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson's mobility has factored into the Ravens' fourth-down success. On fourth-and-one-to-two situations, Baltimore converts 74 percent of the time, versus a league average of 58 percent, per Sports Info Solutions. Jackson himself has converted 23 of 28 designed fourth-down quarterback keeps over the past two seasons.

Punting Has Declined

NFL teams punted 2,184 times in the 2024 season, the lowest total since 1996. The decline has occurred despite a slight rise in overall offensive plays. Punt volume has fallen 18 percent since 2018, per Pro Football Reference, and the composition of punts has also changed — more directional punts targeting the sideline rather than short-field coffin corners.

The change has pressured punter value and contracts. Only three punters signed contracts with average annual value above $5 million in the 2025 offseason, compared with nine in 2020. AJ Cole of the Las Vegas Raiders signed the highest punter deal of the post-analytics era at $4.8 million per year.

Game-Theoretic Considerations

The increased aggression has forced opposing defenses to rebalance practice emphasis toward situational third-and-short and fourth-and-short scenarios. San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, speaking at an MIT Sloan analytics conference in March, said his unit now spends "twice as much practice time on the red zone fourth-down look" as defenses did five years ago.

The countermove suggests a meta-game dynamic: as offenses attempt more fourth downs, defenses adjust, which could in theory reduce future conversion rates. EdjSports's internal models incorporate defensive adjustments by tracking opposing team conversion rates after recent encounters. The current data do not yet show a meaningful adjustment effect.

The Kicking Reset

Field goal accuracy has reached record levels. NFL kickers made 85.4 percent of field goal attempts in 2024, the highest percentage in league history. Kickers have extended their range — 16 field goals of 60 or more yards were made in 2024, more than the total from 2001-2014 combined.

Justin Tucker of the Baltimore Ravens holds the NFL's all-time accuracy record at 88.2 percent across 14 seasons. Chris Boswell of the Pittsburgh Steelers was the most accurate in 2024, making 94.6 percent of attempts. The kicking improvement has extended field-goal viability to the opposing 40-yard line in domed stadiums.

Head Coach Hiring Implications

NFL franchises now screen head coaching candidates on their familiarity with analytical decision-making frameworks. The Chicago Bears, hiring Ben Johnson as head coach in January 2025, included a written case study on fourth-down decisions as part of the interview process. Johnson, a former Detroit Lions offensive coordinator, is associated with analytics-informed play-calling.

Analytics-oriented head coaches now constitute roughly 23 percent of NFL hires since 2020, compared with 8 percent in the 2010s, per analysis by Sports Illustrated. The profession's culture, long resistant to statistical integration, has transformed quickly.